Natural Soil Fertility
Since the dawn of complex civilization, enabled by agricultural technology, we have relied heavily on soil fertility. Plants require a variety of macro and micro nutrients.
For this reason we initially settled areas rich with river sedimentation. This sedimentation is exactly what creates fertile soil, however there are a few other contributors to soil fertility.
The Mesoamericans utilized floating garden pads in lakes and symbiotic relationships akin to permaculture principles to create fertile growing conditions.
Another case would be volcanic soils which are extremely fertile. Which is exactly why Java has an incredibly high population density.
Artificial Fertilizer
One of the most important factors in the relatively recent global population boom was the widespread use of artificial fertilizer. This enabled far more crops to be grown than before. However, we now live in a world where we have fertilizer suppliers and dependent countries.
Every year the global demand for fertilizer grows and I am sure this will become a growing geopolitical issue.
Soil Dysbiosis
Fertilizer demand is also growing because of poor agricultural practices leaching nutrients out of fertile regions. Modern agriculture relies on monocropping, pesticides, herbicides, and other modern industrial practices.
Fortunately there are techniques to combat this and preserve, or even restore, soil fertility naturally. You may have heard how earthworms are good at eating and further decomposing organic matter in soil, thereby increasing soil fertility!
The Climate Crisis = The Food Crisis
The industrial food complex that supports modern populations is based off the climate we were used to in the 20th century and before. As the climate crisis starts to change weather patterns, many regions of the world will experience drastic changes. This may affect some less than others, but overall the instability of weather will increase.
While increasing severe weather patterns may be escapable to some extent, the resulting damage to agricultural industries will not be escapable. Food will become increasingly scarce and prices will soar.
New Age Agriculture
This is where a technological solution may come in. Food security is a big concern as it is a basic human need. Fortunately we are starting to see the rise in use of aquaculture, vertical farming & other advanced agricultural techniques. This new age farming contains a variety of benefits including no pesticides/herbicides, increased nutrient density, and resistance to drastic weather patterns since a lot of these operations are indoors!
Vertical Farming
Now the 2 major challenges with a lot of these techniques is power consumption and initial material cost. However, in the long run it may become far cheaper than traditional agriculture through a variety of means: becoming cheaper through economies of scale, cost per use declining after initial investment, and increasing yields through iterative system design.
Soilless Growing
An interesting thing with vertical farming is that it usually utilizes soilless growing techniques. Below you can see 3 different methods: aeroponics mists the plant roots, deep water culture keeps the roots submerged, nutrient film technique where a thin layer of liquid is maintained below the roots. Each method has its benefits and drawbacks such as water usage, system complexity, and resistance to disease. The drip system is also mentioned which uses soil, but has constant micro-irrigation saving water and efficiently delivering nutrients.
All of these systems utilize nutrient solutions to feed the plants in contrast to natural soil fertility. From what I’ve seen in the cannabis industry, plants grown using soilless methods achieve higher yields and quality of crop. Of course this relies on the care and attention of the growers, but generally it is superior.
“Study finds high blood and urinary metal levels among exclusive marijuana users” (Ground News)
A new study conducted at Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health suggests that marijuana users may have high levels of toxic metals, including lead and cadmium, in their blood. The study found that the cannabis plant absorbs these metals from the soil and deposits them in the leaves and buds, which can then be inhaled by users.
Soilless growing also circumvents this problem of heavy metal accumulation in some plants.
Smart (AI) Management
Instead of using herbicides and pesticides, many agricultural companies are turning to technology. AI powered technologies can keep track of and maintain crops preventing the use of nasty industrial chemicals to keep pests and weeds away.
Genetically Engineered Plants
Contrary to popular opinion, GMOs are not all evil and bad. This perception comes from the way big agriculture companies have prioritized profits over equitable food production: seed privatization, planned obsolescence, and decreasing nutrient density. In the wrong hands any technology becomes terrible, but it is all about the method of application. Genetic modification of plants has actually existed for quite awhile under conventional breeding or hybridization: increase crop yield, hardiness, and new attributes like color, flavor, or other appearance.
Livestock
Now livestock is an industry that will likely not change drastically, however as these new age farming techniques grow in popularity the amount of land used for agricultural practice will decline due to increased efficiency. Therefore, we will have a lot of free land for pastures.
I think that there is a sustainable way to raise cattle, however it does not involve industrial practices like grain feeding or cramped barns. As you can see in the diagram above, nature made cattle to be incredibly efficient in the biological circular economy. 14.5% is a significant portion of the global emissions, but I think the importance of animal protein cannot be ignored.
Synergistic techniques like solar grazing where livestock is used to clear the plant overgrowth in solar farming fields may be able to help, and a fully sustainable grid could feasibly sustain carbon capture.
Some theorize that we will create meat cell tanks instead of raising cattle because it is more resource efficient, but some others argue that this is not an actually feasible idea as it will take a significant amount of time before it is even cost competitive with real beef. One could also potentially argue that the micro-nutrient diversity and density that comes from a pastured cow cannot be paralleled by industrial alternatives.
Dairy on the other hand is simpler to synthetically produce using biomanufacturing!
Aquaculture
Insects as a feed ingredient for fish culture: Status and trends (March 2022)
^ pest eating fish. no need for antibiotics & pesticides