Brave New World
Are we approaching a great filter?
“Truth is stranger than fiction, but it is because fiction is obliged to stick to possibilities; Truth isn't.” - Mark Twain
“Brave New World” published in 1932, by Aldous Huxley, is a dystopian novel that depicts a world where a global state brings peace and stability through unorthodox social values and authoritative use of technology. Many would argue there are some stark similarities between this story and modern society. Thankfully we do not have a centralized global government, but we are beginning to see the abuse of technology to surveil the masses.
“NSO Group” (Israeli cyber-intelligence firm, produces government level spyware)
Great lengths are taken to keep a close eye on citizens. “Nineteen Eighty-Four” warns that this absolute grip over society to preserve order eventually results in a loss of humanity: dignity, morals, values, emotions.
This is just one of the parallels we can draw from science fiction stories. There is a plethora of authors that delve into the chaos that technology can release on the world. However, this does not necessarily mean that technology is bad, it is not as simple as that. It just means that the world will change faster than ever, this may present opportunities for bad actors/states to take advantage (dark tetrad/psychopathic personality types, will cover this in the future).
“Chaos is a ladder” - Littlefinger, Game of Thrones (Machiavellian character)
Technological Singularity
Sometimes referred to as “The Singularity,” there is an idea that we are approaching a point where technological growth becomes uncontrollable and irreversible.
“Superintelligence” postulates an AI that can surpass human intelligence. ‘Experts’ predict that this will be possible anywhere from 2028 to 2045, but as always such specific prognistications are usually inaccurate.
What is clear is that it is coming within the earlier half of this century based on the current rate of progress.
Some may even argue that our technology is a natural extension of our evolutionary process. We are starting to see the enmeshment between biology and computer science: brain-computer interfaces, digital neural nets, quantum computing (nature utilizes quantum phenomena!).
British entrepreneur Mustafa Suleyman, and writer Michael Bhaskar, recently released this book above covering 3 industries that are rapidly developing, and will converge to create the biggest revolution in human history: AI, quantum computing, and synthetic biology. I briefly talked about this impending synergistic wave in my previous post.
I will cover the specific industries, and examples of convergence, in more depth with upcoming posts!
Takeoffs
“Distinguishing definitions of takeoff“ (Alignment Forum, Feb 13, 2020)
Foom/Hard Takeoff
Hansonian “Slow” Takeoff
Bostromian Takeoffs
Slow
Fast
Moderate
Continuous Takeoff
Gradual Takeoff?
Paul Slow Takeoff
No Takeoff
Drexler’s Takeoff
Bauman’s Takeoff
As you can see there are numerous depictions of how The Singularity may occur. The manner and point in time at which this may occur depends on endless factors with no real empirical basis. A few concepts we can summate are…
Inflection points: breakthroughs that accelerate progress
Hypertechnocapitalism: increasing capitalism, concentration of wealth, through large technology companies swallowing every industry
Disruptive innovation & legacy industries: old monopolized industries/companies will fight to retain their control against new & rising contenders. For example, Tesla vs legacy auto companies.
I think that this topic is extremely nuanced because of the secondary, or even tertiary, effects that AI could have on society, as well as differences between the micro/macro perspectives of impact. The posts below provided me with some interesting near and mid future outlooks.
^ will AI take away jobs? Probably not because of latent demand.
^ maybe AI will create a utopia through infinite problem solving capabilities.
“Seven Years in Seven Days: AI Takeoff March 2023: Strap In, Humans“ (Musings of Freedom)
“I can say honestly and without exaggeration: I’ve been in tech for more than 3 decades now, and this past 7 days has been the most eventful and most accelerated leap I’ve yet seen. It is, without a doubt, the AI takeoff. Let’s give it some context, and hit some of the highlights:”
- AcroYogi
Superintelligence
AI Safety
“Another AI threat: The next pandemic” (June 16, 2023)
I will be covering more closely about the modern biotech revolution in my next post! Unfortunately, the next pandemic may be sooner than you imagine.
LLMs
“Universal and Transferable Adversarial Attacks on Aligned Language Models” (LLM Attacks)
“Researchers Poke Holes in Safety Controls of ChatGPT and Other Chatbots“ (NYT July 27, 2023)
The Hypermodern Landscape
GPU Demand
Due to the strong rise in demand for AI computing we are seeing 2 companies reap massive revenue gains. Nvidia manufactures the leading hardware for this, meanwhile Amazon hosts the leading market share for cloud computing services.
Clickbait videos, but goes into some more depth.
Autonomous Labor
“RT-2: New model translates vision and language into action“ (July 28, 2023)
Deep Fakes
“Prevalence of ‘Deepfakes’ Causes Courts to Question Validity of Evidence”
“OpenAI scuttles AI-written text detector over ‘low rate of accuracy’“ (July 25, 2023)
“Deep Voodoo“ (Advanced facial effects company)
Drone Warfare
“Slaughterbots Are Here” (Lethal Autonomous Weapons - activist group)
“US military plans to unleash thousands of autonomous war robots over next two years“ (Aug 30, 2023)
A Path to Rationality
One of the key themes in “Brave New World” is that future society starts to accept willful self-delusion. We see this in the “soma” that they consume which sedates them with happy hallucinations, and the world state seeks to prioritize happiness over the truth.
“The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark” published in 1995, by Carl Sagan and Ann Druyan, seeks to explain the scientific method to the laypeople and encourage critical/skeptical thinking. The objective of the message is to prevent the rise of pseudoscience, ignorance, and general irrationality.
We must rely on empiricism, statistics alone do not tell us an accurate picture: epidemology studies are often correlatory not causal (meaning they show a relationship with no real evidence of one causing the other). We must observe all information with doubt. Things like peer review, repeatibility of results, and proper causal inference must affirm our conclusions.
Nowadays, sensationalism and politics seems to be the priority of mainstream conversation. This is likely the case out of pure greed for more traffic/profits, and could even extend to societal control/power. There are instinctual psychological phenomena that lead the general population to be more perceptive to negative information. This was an evolved trait meant to keep us alive from dangers like predatory animals.
A Bright Future
I know this post might incite some deep fears about the future, however please do not think that the worst outcomes are inevitable. I believe we can seek to create the best possible future for ourselves, but this comes with hard work. We must be informed, we must take action, we must perservere to create a better future for the destiny of humankind.
“It’s Time to Build“ (Marc Andreessen - A16Z venture capital firm)
”Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System” (“Satoshi Nakamoto”)